The yield curve is becoming flatter. The difference between the 10-year and 2-year government bond is now approaching 1%. The yield curve tends to get flatter when the economy reaches the end of an ...

Learn how understanding the bond yield curve's signals can inform economic forecasts and enhance your investment decisions ...

The yield spread between long-term and short-term Treasury securities is known to be a good predictor of economic activity, particularly of looming recessions. One way to learn more is through a ...

It is conventional wisdom that the reduced form Phillips curve has become flatter in recent decades. Accordingly, we show that the statistical relationship between changes in U.S. inflation and ...

The euro area yield curve steepened significantly in 2025 as long-term and especially very long-term interest rates increased. This ECB Blog post ...

The yield curve, which looks at the spread between the 10-year treasury note and the year bill, has been an excellent predictor of coming recessions since 1960, with ...