Geopolitical tensions around Iran and the Strait of Hormuz have pushed oil prices past $120 per barrel, with the WTI Crude ...

Samsung's Q1 profit beats expectations and starts HBM4 production for Nvidia. Nvidia largest company by market cap on April ...

US plans to deploy Dark Eagle hypersonic missiles in the Middle East. US invasion of Iran by December 31, 2026 at 0.2% YES.

Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz and public derision of U.S. strategy have pushed odds sharply lower on a resolution. A ...

Iran threatens to close the Strait of Hormuz amid US tensions. Ceasefire by April 30 at 0.9% YES; no qualifying US-Iran ...

Trump orders an extended blockade of Iran to secure nuclear concessions. Blockade lifting by May 31 at 43.5% YES.

Putin met Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi in St. Petersburg, and the probability of no US-Iran diplomatic meeting by ...

Pentagon reports the US war in Iran has cost $25 billion so far, while the Fed Rate Cuts Predictions for 2026 market sits at ...

Powell reports solid US economic growth despite the Iran war energy shock. Rate cut after June 2026 at 3.6% YES.

UN maritime agency rejects Iran's toll plan for Strait of Hormuz shipping. Traffic normalization by April 30 at 0% YES.

Iran holds pro-government rallies amid stability concerns. Regime fall by April 30 at 0.1% YES, by June 30 at 8% YES.

US-Iran talks have stalled, leading to a drop in the odds for lifting the Hormuz blockade by May 31 to 43.5% YES.